Yemen's Future Uncertain as Clashes Erupt Between Saudi and UAE-Backed Forces
The country's stability hangs in the balance as a power struggle between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates escalates, threatening to divide Yemen. The Gulf powers have been supporting the internationally recognized government in the ongoing civil war, but a rift in their alliance has led to a direct confrontation, with one faction pushing for a breakaway state in the south.
On Friday, the UAE-backed forces declared war, accusing their Saudi counterparts of a joint attack, including air strikes. The civil war, which began in 2014, has already devastated Yemen, causing widespread violence and a severe hunger crisis. Initially, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels took control of northern Yemen, but a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened in 2015 to restore government rule.
A ceasefire brought a temporary truce, but the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) has disintegrated. Meanwhile, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) has seized control of most of southern Yemen. The STC's offensive on December 2nd, aimed at establishing an independent state, led to the capture of strategic territories, including the oil-rich Hadramawt province.
The head of the PLC, Rashad al-Alimi, denounced the STC's actions as a rebellion, warning of potential chaos. Tensions escalated with Saudi-led air strikes, resulting in casualties. The UAE's foreign ministry refuted accusations of delivering military equipment to the separatists, while the Yemeni Presidential Council canceled a defense treaty with the UAE and ordered its forces to depart.
The Saudi foreign ministry supported the withdrawal, accusing the UAE of instigating the STC's offensive, which reached Saudi borders. The UAE, despite denying involvement, eventually agreed to withdraw, citing its focus on securing sea ports and challenging an Islamist party in the government.
Experts suggest that the UAE's influence in Yemen will persist, even with a reduced physical presence. The conflict has devastated Yemen's economy, with aid agencies reporting the world's third-worst hunger crisis. The UN estimates that over 377,000 lives have been lost due to the conflict and its impact on healthcare, with a significant number being children.
While the conflict is portrayed as a proxy war between Gulf powers, analysts predict further escalation. The STC's aspirations for independence, fueled by its territorial gains, have raised concerns. Yemeni journalist Anwar al-Ansi believes the STC's leader, Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, is committed to his cause.
Anwar al-Tamimi, an STC spokesperson, confirmed their intentions to establish an independent state, asserting their right to self-determination. However, the future of Yemen remains uncertain, with the potential for continued conflict and the possibility of Saudi-backed forces reclaiming the south.
